Updated 2026 · Based on median market data for Surprise, AZ
The median monthly rent in Surprise, AZ is $1,580, translating to $18,960 in annual gross rental income per unit. The rent-to-price ratio is 0.41% — well below the 1% rule, making pure cash flow investing challenging at median prices.
Renters in Surprise spend approximately 28% of the local median household income ($68,200) on rent. This is within the healthy 25-30% range, indicating rent is affordable relative to local incomes. There may be room for moderate rent increases, especially for updated or well-located units.
The vacancy rate in Surprise is 4.8%. This is extremely tight — expect strong tenant demand, quick lease-ups, and leverage to set favorable lease terms. In markets this tight, landlords often see multiple applications per listing. Population growth of 2.5% annually is actively adding rental demand.
Surprise's GRM (price divided by annual rent) is 20.3x. A GRM above 16x means the property is expensive relative to its income. Investors here are typically betting on appreciation rather than current cash flow. For comparison, the national average GRM for investment-grade rentals is approximately 13-15x.
At the median rent of $1,580/mo, a single-family rental in Surprise generates approximately $18,960 in gross annual income. After accounting for 4.8% vacancy ($910 lost), property taxes of $2,310, insurance (~$1,540), and maintenance (~$1,540), the estimated NOI is $12,660 per year, or $1,055/mo.