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Cap Rate Analysis: Mesa, AZ

Investment metrics, interactive calculators, and data-driven analysis for Mesa rental properties.

Challenging for pure cash flow
Based on $365,000 median price and $1,520/mo median rent
Est. Cap Rate
3.30%
1% Rule
0.42%
Fails
GRM
20.0x
Price / Income
6.3x

Market Data

Median Home Price$365,000
Median Monthly Rent$1,520
Property Tax Rate0.63%
Population518,012
Population Growth1.6% / yr
Median Household Income$58,400
Vacancy Rate5.4%
Annual Appreciation3%

Cap Rate Calculator — Mesa

Pre-filled with Mesa medians. Adjust to match a specific property.

Property Details
$
$
3–8% typical
%
Monthly Expenses
0.63% rate
$
$
8–10% of rent
$
8–12% of rent
$
Cap Rate
2.79%Low
Net Operating Income ÷ Purchase Price
NOI / Year
$10,199
net operating income
Gross Rent Multiplier
20.0x
High (>15)
1% Rule
0.42%
✗ Fails
Monthly Cash Flow
$850
before debt service
Annual Breakdown
Gross Rental Income$18,240
Less Vacancy−$985
Effective Income$17,255
Less Operating Expenses−$7,056
Net Operating Income$10,199

Cash-on-Cash Return — Mesa

Factor in financing to see your actual return on invested capital in Mesa.

$
$91,250
%
%
years
$
taxes + ins + maint + mgmt
$
$
Cash-on-Cash Return
-10.60%Weak
Annual Cash Flow ÷ Total Cash Invested
Total Cash Invested
$102,200
$91,250 down + $10,950 closing
Monthly Mortgage
$1,785
on $274K loan
Monthly Cash Flow
$-903
after all expenses
Annual Cash Flow
$-10,832
before taxes
Cash Flow Breakdown
Monthly Rent$1,520
Less Expenses−$638
Less Mortgage−$1,785
Monthly Cash Flow$-903

Is Mesa a Good Place to Invest in Rental Property?

Mesa, AZ has a population of 518,012 and has been growing at 1.6% annually — above the national average, suggesting steady demand pressure on housing. The median home price of $365,000 paired with median rents of $1,520/mo produces an estimated cap rate of 3.30%.

Property taxes at 0.63% are well below the national average of ~1.1%, providing a meaningful cash flow advantage many investors overlook. The vacancy rate of 5.4% is moderate and within normal parameters for a healthy rental market.

At a price-to-income ratio of 6.3x, homes cost about 6.3 times the local median income of $58,400. This elevated ratio means homeownership is stretched, supporting rental demand but limiting buyer pools. Home values have appreciated at roughly 3% annually. Steady appreciation means total returns will be primarily cash flow-driven — the more sustainable model for long-term wealth building.

Bottom line: At current median prices, Mesa is challenging for pure cash flow investing. Consider BRRRR strategies with below-market purchases, or look at neighboring metros with stronger price-to-rent ratios.

Run a BRRRR analysis for Mesa
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