Updated 2026 · Based on median market data for Waco, TX
Home values in Waco, TX have appreciated at 2.5% per year. Appreciation is modest, meaning total returns will be driven primarily by cash flow rather than equity gains. This is actually preferred by many investors who want predictable, income-based returns.
If Waco continues appreciating at 2.5% annually, the current median of $205,000 would reach approximately $231,939 in 5 years — an equity gain of $26,939 on a property purchased at the median. With a 20% down payment of $41,000, that represents a 66% return on invested equity from appreciation alone. Combined with 5 years of NOI totaling approximately $39,097, the projected total return is $66,036 — a 161% cumulative return on the initial investment.
Waco's population growth of 0.9% is moderate and positive, supporting steady but not explosive demand for housing. Markets with this growth profile tend to appreciate consistently without the boom-bust cycles of hyper-growth metros.
Smart investors evaluate both cash flow AND appreciation. In Waco, the 3.81% cap rate provides moderate ongoing cash flow, while 2.5% annual appreciation adds an equity component. Conservative underwriting is essential. Focus on deals where the cash flow stands on its own, and treat any appreciation as a bonus.