Updated 2026 · Based on median market data for Amarillo, TX
Home values in Amarillo, TX have appreciated at 2.2% per year. Appreciation is modest, meaning total returns will be driven primarily by cash flow rather than equity gains. This is actually preferred by many investors who want predictable, income-based returns.
If Amarillo continues appreciating at 2.2% annually, the current median of $175,000 would reach approximately $195,116 in 5 years — an equity gain of $20,116 on a property purchased at the median. With a 20% down payment of $35,000, that represents a 57% return on invested equity from appreciation alone. Combined with 5 years of NOI totaling approximately $40,799, the projected total return is $60,915 — a 174% cumulative return on the initial investment.
Amarillo's population growth of 0.7% is moderate and positive, supporting steady but not explosive demand for housing. Markets with this growth profile tend to appreciate consistently without the boom-bust cycles of hyper-growth metros.
Smart investors evaluate both cash flow AND appreciation. In Amarillo, the 4.66% cap rate provides moderate ongoing cash flow, while 2.2% annual appreciation adds an equity component. Conservative underwriting is essential. Focus on deals where the cash flow stands on its own, and treat any appreciation as a bonus.